Toronto Real Estate - Best Month Since Spring

September had virtually the same number of buyers as August while our active listing inventory increased +13% in the same timeframe.

August brought us more of the same-o, same-o market we've seen for months this year. Not only did we see the lowest overall sales number since 2000, but sales of condominium units (both townhouses and high-rises) were the lowest since 2002.

The July Toronto / GTA real estate market continued in the doldrums with the lowest overall sales since 2008. The month's average sale price was the lowest since January of this year as well.

June was another slow real estate market in Toronto with -2% decline in the year-over-year average sale price for the second month in a row.

With active listing inventory up by 83% over May 2023, and the second lowest sales for the month in the last 23 years, the Toronto real estate market is hurting... for sellers at least.

Almost every Toronto real estate market statistic is showing "No Change" from April 2023.

The worst culprit is monthly sales which were the second lowest since 2002 and would have been the worst except for April 2020 when the pandemic hit.

There's been some hype in the media about a big market upswing during February, but is that hype justified? February sales in TRREB totalled 5,604 which was 18% above last year's dismal number. However, over the last ten years, the month's average sales number was just barely under 7,000 so we have a way to go yet.

January certainly had a boost in buyer activity with 4,223 sales in the GTA (average month's sales over the past 10 years is just slightly higher at 4,651). The warmer / no snow weather probably helped too as did talk of inflation holding steady.

Well, 2023 really was a miserable year for real estate sales in Toronto and the GTA. The last year annual sales were lower was in 2001, 22 years ago.

Almost the same! That's certainly true for the November TRREB overall average sale price which came in just a few thousand dollars above the 2022 number.

October confirmed that we're definitely in a holding pattern, especially as it concerns the Toronto real estate market average sale price and monthly sales numbers are concerned.

Both remained basically flat compared to September's numbers.

Our Toronto real estate fall market is definitely NOT starting off with a bang. The total sales for the month were the lowest since 1999, 23 years ago. But all is not so dismal.

The average selling price across the GTA has remained remarkably stable for the past nine months of 2023. September's number ($1,119,428) is almost identical to the average year-to-date ($1,121,534) and it is up by 3% from September 2022.

There's no question that the August Toronto / GTA real estate market was running slow... in fact, sales were the lowest going back 23 years. Active listings across the board increased by just 6% from 2022.

The interesting statistic, contrary to what you read in the media, was the average GTA sale price remained virtually the same compared to 2022 each month since May. August had more condos sold, percentage-wise, which makes logical sense considering they're averaging about half the purchase price of semi- or detached houses.

Sales took a dive in our summer July market (2nd lowest since 2000) although they were up +7% from a dismal July 2022. We ended up with a 'market velocity' or 'sales-to-listings' overall market ratio of 34%, almost in buyer market territory.

The average sale price for the entire Toronto GTA was approximately $60,000 lower than in June but it still showed an increase of 4.1% from one year ago.

It looks like 2023 will be the year when we have a traditional summer market where sales slow through July and August and don't begin to pick up until after Labour Day in September.

June sales this year were among the lowest in the last 23 years, going back to between 2000 and 2002. Based on sales-to-date (38,696), 2023 should end with total sales in the 75-80K range, on par with 2018 (78,017) which was the lowest in the past 13 years.

It's in the books now... May was the market's turning point as the GTA real estate market took off in a delayed spring market.

Sales across the board for both houses and condos showed big increases compared to one year ago and even one month ago.

The one facet of the market that did not increase was the listing inventory... it continued to show declines from 2022.

Toronto real estate's market decline is officially over (at least in my opinion). We've now seen several months of slow but steady increases in the average sale price as a market with a diminished listing inventory reacts with multiple offer situations and a low days-on-market number.